dalla dimensione dello ZIRP (Zero interest-rate policy)
a quella del Sottozero (Tassi sotto zero)
vedi mio post: DALLO ZIRP AL SOTTOZERODel resto siamo o non siamo nel Territorio Inesplorato della più Grande Bolla di sempre? ...;-)
Ed ecco che alla BCE la mossetta sotto zero torna di moda.
Per ora sono solo rumors di stampa...poi si vedrà...
La BCE applicherà tasso negativo sui depositi
La BCE vuole intervenire con più strumenti per contrastare la forza dell'euro e la bassa inflazione. Lo riporta "Der Spiegel" nel suo ultimo numero.Intermarket&more spiega bene perchè la mossetta, per ora di entità limitata ed applicata solo ai deposito delle banche presso la BCE (domani chissà...)
Secondo delle indiscrezioni raccolte dall'autorevole settimanale tedesco, Peter Praet, il capo economista della BCE, raccomanderà il 5 giugno, quando si terrà la prossima riunione del consiglio direttivo dell'Eurotower,un taglio dei tassi d'interesse dallo 0,25% allo 0,15%. In questo modo il costo del denaro scenderebbe nell'area della moneta unica ad un nuovo minimo storico.
La BCE avrebbe inoltre l'intenzione di applicare un tasso negativo sui depositi pari a -0,1%.
Ciò significa che le banche dovranno in futuro pagare per poter parcheggiare per brevi periodi i loro soldi presso l'istituto di Francoforte..............
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La BCE punta con le due misure a sostenere il mercato del credito. Soprattutto nei Paesi in crisi dell'Eurozona famiglie ed imprese hanno ancora difficoltà a ricevere presititi. I più bassi tassi d'interesse potrebbero inoltre indebolire l'euro.
Un allentamento quantitativo non sarebbe all'ordine del giorno della prossima riunione del consiglio direttivo della BCE. Mario Draghi preferirebbe tenere in serbo questa carta per l'eventualità che l'inflazione dovesse ancora scendere.....
non sarebbe molto utile, anzi...potrebbe avere degli indesiderati effetti collaterali (unintended consequences)....come spesso accade nel Territorio Inesplorato della Bolla...
Dalla Germania voci di tassi negativi sui depositi. Sarebbe però inutile e controproducenteIntanto il buon Ben Bernanke, ex-presidente della FED e mitico Bubble's Master che ha fatto apparire Greenspan un principiante,
.....Ora, voglio essere sincero con voi.
Fatico enormemente a capire quale potrebbe essere la funzione di un tasso sui depositi negativo.
Per carità, un ulteriore taglio del tasso REPO potrebbe avere una funzione di tipo “psicologico”, e probabilmente il passaggio in negativo dei tassi sui depositi delle banche presso la BCE, dovrebbe disincentivare a detenere i capitali in deposito presso la banca centrale.
Per carità , la cifra dei depositi delle banche presso l’Eurosistema è importante. Si aggira sui 350 miliardi di Euro. E qualcuno potrebbe pensare che applicare un tasso negativo vada ad incentivare le banche a prestare più denaro alle imprese.
Ma questo è un palese errore.
....Infatti molto spesso le banche lasciano del denaro in BCE non perché NON vuole prestarlo alle aziende ma perché sono soldi che servono proprio per la normale gestione della banca.
E’ infatti impensabile che una banca abbia sempre tutta la liquidità investita. Certo, parte di questi fondi possono anche essere fondi “inoperosi”, ma di certo non tutti.
Inoltre, chi possiede dei fondi inoperosi che rischiano di essere tassati, secondo voi, che fine fanno?
Semplice.
Le banche compreranno altri titoli di stato, magari con rendimenti bassissimi e di alta qualità, ma almeno non costano nulla.
Il riferimento a bond dell’Eurozona a scadenza breve è chiarissimo.
Infine: le banche che effettivamente devono lasciare in deposito BCE del denaro e che non vogliono comprare ad esempio Bund, potrebbero anche accettare di pagare una nuova tassa.
Ma non temete, il costo verrebbe subito girato ai vari clienti e diventerebbe praticamente un intervento scaricato sulla collettività.Ricordate? Già vi ho accennato che nel nord Europa (Danimarca) si era tentato l’esperimento. Che palesemente fallì...........
adesso che è in "pensione" va in giro a fare conferenze super-pagate...
Ma io vi faccio risparmiare i 10mila $ di biglietto
e vi riferisco che cosa ho colto grazie alla "microspia" piazzata dalla mia intelligence nell'ultima conferenza di Ben....
Ecco la Versione "Bignami" by COBRAF...
Non Vedremo Mai più i Tassi al 4% in Questa GenerazioneE poi Vi copio incollo anche la versione per esteso di questa previsione "shock"
18:27 16/05/14
Ben Bernanke, da quando non è più governatore della Federal Reserve, sta tenendo discorsi in giro per il mondo a cene riservate a ricchi investitori in cui viene pagato 250mila dollari a serata.
E cosa racconta ai mega gestori e altri miliardari disposti a pagare sui 10mila dollari a cranio per avere il privilegio di sedersi vicino a Bernanke ?
Sembra da quello che trapela che Bernanke sia convinto che la FED non alzerà mai i tassi, cioè che non ritornerà ad esempio ad un 4% del tasso di interesse a cui presta "nel corso della sua vita"
Bernanke ha 60 anni e ha un aspettativa di vita sui 25 anni, per cui regolatevi.
naturalmente anticipata secoli fa dal sottoscritto...perchè è evidente che da questa Bolla QE+ZIRP non esistono facili Exit Strategies...come vi hanno babbiato.
E vi copio incollo l'ipotesi di come potrebbero reagire i Mercati alla dritta di Ben...;-)
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Ben Bernanke Gave Hedge Fund Managers A Big Trade Hint, And They All Missed It
Ben Bernanke has wasted no time capitalizing on his experience as chairman of the Federal Reserve. According to Reuters' Jonathan Spicer and Svea Herbst-Bayliss, Bernanke has been giving talks and Q&A's at dinners for the modest fee of $250,000.
That sounds like a high price. But the hedge fund managers who've been to these dinners would disagree.
Here's an excerpt from Spicer and Herbst-Bayliss' piece (emphasis added):
At least one guest left a New York restaurant with the impression Bernanke, 60, does not expect the federal funds rate, the Fed's main benchmark interest rate, to rise back to its long-term average of around 4 percent in Bernanke's lifetime, one source who had spoken to the guest said...
...David Tepper, the hedge fund manager who earned $3.5 billion in 2013 to rank as the industry's best paid investor, said at an industry conference this week that he attended the first private dinner and peppered Bernanke with questions. But Tepper said he didn't make the best use of the information, a lapse he now regrets. "I screwed up that trade," he said.
At the same conference, Novogratz from Fortress said many hedge funds that bet on big interest rate and currency movements missed a hint from Bernanke at the dinner and failed to buy long duration Treasuries...
One of the biggest stories in the global financial markets right now is the stunning rally in Treasury notes and bonds, which has been reflected by tumbling interest rates. At the beginning of the year around the time Bernanke retired from the Fed, the 10-year yield was at around 3.0% and Wall Street's consensus was that it would climb to 3.4% by the end of the year.
Today, the 10-year yield is at 2.52%, which means everyone who bet on bonds has been cleaning up.
That is, anyone who bought into Bernanke's signal.
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Bernanke Shocker: "No Rate Normalization During My Lifetime"
Forget all talk about "dots", "6 months", or any other prognostication from the Fed's new leadership about what will happen in the near and not so near future. For the real answer prepare to shelve out the usual fee of $250,000 for an hour with the Chairsatan, or read Reuters' account of what others who have done so, have learned. The answer is a stunner.
"At least one guest left a New York restaurant with the impression Bernanke, 60, does not expect the federal funds rate, the Fed's main benchmark interest rate, to rise back to its long-term average of around 4 percent in Bernanke's lifetime. "Shocking when he said this," the guest scribbled in his notes. "Is that really true?" he scribbled at another point, according to the notes reviewed by Reuters."
To think one could have read Zero Hedge for free for the past 5 years and gotten the same answer (time for a pop quiz: pumping liquidity into a closed system in perpetuity is i) inflationary or ii) deflationary?). But no, one would rather pay Bernanke's former annual salary in less than an hour to get the answer from the same person who infamously stated that "subprime was contained", that "there is no housing bubble", and that he doesn't buy the premise of house price declines as there has never been a "decline of house prices on a nationwide basis."
Still, one can't blame Bernanke for providing a service that the market (one market the former chairman didn't manage to break with his central planning spree, unlike all other markets) demands. Alan Greenspan waited only a week after his departure before addressing a private dinner hosted by Lehman Brothers, the investment bank whose collapse in 2008 sent the financial crisis into high gear.
Bernanke's private dinners, all of which cost around $250,000 began near the end of March, roughly two months after his retirement.
We say around because while Greenspan has already been rocked by 50% deflation in his "assets", Bernanke too is starting to realize that without constant liquidity injections, his "inflationary" days are also numbered:
The baseline fee for a private get together is $250,000, and more if Bernanke needs to travel from his home in Washington, though the price has dropped some as he has done more events, the sources said. The size of that decline could not be immediately learned.
Certainly expect the price of a Bernanke dinner to tumble now that virtually everyone who matters, and can afford the fee, has already listened to the Chairsatan in private, and the value of Bernanke's insight has been, shall we say, "diluted":
Hedge fund attendees have included Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp and David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. Others have included Michael Novogratz of Fortress Investment Group, and Larry Robbins of Glenview Capital, as previously reported in other media. All declined to comment to Reuters.
David Tepper, the hedge fund manager who earned $3.5 billion in 2013 to rank as the industry's best paid investor, said at an industry conference this week that he attended the first private dinner and peppered Bernanke with questions. But Tepper said he didn't make the best use of the information, a lapse he now regrets. "I screwed up that trade," he said.
At the same conference, Novogratz from Fortress said many hedge funds that bet on big interest rate and currency movements missed a hint from Bernanke at the dinner and failed to buy long duration Treasuries.
Oh yeah, it was Bernanke hinting that Tsys are due for a surge - nothing to do with the fact that the global economy is stalling and that everyone and the kitchen sink was short rates, launching one of the biggest short squeezes in recent history.
Not surprisingly, not everyone is a happy customer:
Not every guest believes they came away from a Bernanke dinner with an exclusive insight.
"People can try all they want to feel that they got him to say something extra to them, but he never does," said one person who attended one of the dinners.
As for Bernanke's profound insight, it appears all he really did is admit that he failed at stimulating the economy.
In one dinner-table exchange with investors, Bernanke argued that fiscal tightening, constrained financial markets and lower U.S. productivity all point to lower real rates than would be considered normal for a long time to come.
Based on trading in the massive Eurodollar futures market, investors have in recent months tempered expectations of rate rises in the years ahead; as it stands, they don't expect the fed funds rate to return to 4 percent until 2022. As recently as last September, futures markets signaled they thought this would happen by the end of 2018.
At the dinners, Bernanke has also argued the Fed would want to delay raising rates if the tighter financial conditions created could threaten to harm the economy. He has also stressed that financial stability concerns would more formally be considered in policy-making, according to the sources.
In other words, blame Congress for slowing down the economy as it did not engage in reform, the same Congress which explicitly made it clear it would not engage in reform and told the Mr. Chairman "to get to work" to compensate for Congressional ineptitude. And now Bernanke has the gall to blame Congress, which is only able to do what it does thanks to, you guessed it, the Fed's ZIRP policy.
Of course, the slowing down of the economy, snow or no snow, is precisely the reason why bonds are bid. We explained as much recently:
"When the Fed begins lifting rates is almost not an issue any more,” Stan Jonas, former managing partner of Axiom Management Partners in New York, "The real question is how fast does the Fed increase rates and where do they stop. The market now sees diminished macroeconomic expectations and expects the Fed to ending the upcoming tightening cycle at around 3 percent."
In other words, the bond market believes in the Japanization of America and another lost decade as the new normal low/no growth world slugs along with no escape velocity dreams anytime soon.
Or even more clearly - it's about more than this cycle... the Fed's taper will run its course, the Fed will tighten rates and the economy will slump rapidly meaning the Fed will ease once again (and by then QE will have lost all credibility as anything but an asset inflation machine and along with it - the Fed's credibility)... the tumble in forward rates indicates the markets growing belief that the future growthiness looks very different from the dream priced into stocks...
Or, in other words, the Taper will lead to the Untaper, as we predicted exactly one year ago, leading to QE number... we don't even know the nuimber any more - 5, 6, 7? Rinse. Repeat.
As for the conclusion:
"He's being paid ... for sharing his wisdom and predictions, and presumably not to exert his influence on the Fed," he added. This will go on "until he's proven to not be all that clairvoyant."
The biggest shocker is not that Bernanke punked the market once again and after 5 years of QE the US economy is once again headed into a tailspin - most people with some common sense knew that in 2009.
The shocker is that people are willing to pay even $1, let alone $250,000, to listen to Bernanke speak.
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