Bailout della Grecia: il rumor prende sostanza

Nella giornata di ieri vi avevo pre-annunciato tempestivamente un rumor fresco fresco sul possibile bailout della Grecia.
Oggi le voci di un salvataggio della Grecia assumono un contorno più definito anche se non è ancora detto che si finalizzino.
Non c'è ancora nulla di deciso ma se ne sta discutendo...e le opzioni sul tavolo sono molteplici.
Purtoppo stamattina non ho tempo.
Vi posto solo alcuni riferimenti (in Inglese) che tratteggiano il quadro "magmatico" e scottante della situazione.

EU signals backing for Greece
The EU signalled on Thursday it would not let Athens’ mounting debt crisis jeopardise the eurozone, even as Germany and France played down suggestions they had already formulated an emergency rescue plan.
EU officials said Greece would receive last-resort emergency support, if necessary, in an operation involving eurozone governments and the European Commission but not the IMF.
They spoke as escalating investor anxiety drove Greek bond yields up to a record 7.25%. See separate FT report here.


Moral Hazard Runs Amok As Europe Pre-Announces The Greek Bailout

For all the talk about Greece having to sort things out by itself, a European backstop looks assured.
Gray areas simply don't exist in such matters. Even a backstop that isn't utilized still supports the credit of a nation, or a financial institution as was seen with AIG and Citi in the U.S..
Thus either Europe would or would not ultimately support Greece in the event of financial disaster. It doesn't really matter if they haven't done it yet.
And it's official, they would:

FT: According to high-level EU officials, Greece would in the last resort receive emergency support in an operation involving eurozone governments and the Commission but not the International Monetary Fund.

Eurozone countries and EU authorities are reluctant to spell out how they would assist Greece, for fear that it would relax pressure on Athens to attack its problems and unsettle rattled financial markets.

The immediate priority is for Athens to demonstrate that it is serious about cutting public expenditure, improving tax collection, publishing reliable financial statistics and tackling corruption, the officials said.

“Greece has to sort this out itself. That is the issue,” a French official said.

Mr Barroso said “the best way to help Greece is for Greece to respect its obligations under the stability and growth pact”, a reference to the EU’s fiscal rules.

His message was echoed by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister, who said: “The euro club is a strong club with strong ties and reciprocal support. Let no one be mistaken about that.”

Greek 5 yr CDS hits 420, let’s compare

To put into perspective the 420 bps level of 5 yr Greece CDS, it is now just 55 bps from debt plagued Dubai and well above the following credits, Bulgaria (255 bps), Croatia (234 bps) Egypt (250 bps), Hungary (243 bps), Kazakhstan (210 bps), Lebanon (247 bps), Romania (250 bps), Russia (192 bps), and Turkey (196 bps). It remains though more than half the level of Venezuela (1038 bps), Argentina (1032 bps) and Ukraine (923 bps). The US trades at 43 bps, UK at 84 bps, Japan at 88 bps, Germany at 35 bps and the other stretched European sovereign credits such as Italy trades at 122 bps, Portugal at 169 bps, Spain at 135 bps and Ireland at 147 bps.
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